Closure: 44%
Moderate
OPEN
🌡️ 9–13°C
🌧️ 3.5mm
💨 24km/h
☁️ 90%
💧 Balance: 40mm
📊 Sat: 90%
🔄 Net 7d: +2.3mm
Playability:
49/100
Playable
Closure: 46%
Moderate
PARTIAL
🌡️ 9–10°C
🌧️ 13.0mm
💨 14km/h
☁️ 100%
💧 Balance: 45mm
📊 Sat: 100%
🔄 Net 7d: +14.6mm
Playability:
13/100
Overstone with Tez
Closure: 46%
Moderate
PARTIAL
🌡️ 4–9°C
🌧️ 1.4mm
💨 25km/h
☁️ 81%
💧 Balance: 44mm
📊 Sat: 99%
🔄 Net 7d: +14.4mm
Playability:
23/100
Grim
Closure: 46%
Moderate
PARTIAL
🌡️ 4–10°C
🌧️ 2.7mm
💨 20km/h
☁️ 93%
💧 Balance: 45mm
📊 Sat: 100%
🔄 Net 7d: +16.5mm
Playability:
33/100
Grim
Closure: 46%
Moderate
PARTIAL
🌡️ 8–14°C
🌧️ 0.0mm
💨 22km/h
☁️ 53%
💧 Balance: 42mm
📊 Sat: 94%
🔄 Net 7d: +14.2mm
Playability:
58/100
Playable
Closure: 46%
Moderate
PARTIAL
🌡️ 7–11°C
🌧️ 1.5mm
💨 7km/h
☁️ 92%
💧 Balance: 42mm
📊 Sat: 93%
🔄 Net 7d: +15.9mm
Playability:
48/100
Playable
Closure: 48%
Moderate
PARTIAL
🌡️ 7–13°C
🌧️ 0.0mm
💨 16km/h
☁️ 81%
💧 Balance: 40mm
📊 Sat: 88%
🔄 Net 7d: +16.1mm
Playability:
57/100
Playable
Closure: 48%
Moderate
PARTIAL
🌡️ 4–11°C
🌧️ 0.0mm
💨 24km/h
☁️ 33%
💧 Balance: 37mm
📊 Sat: 83%
🔄 Net 7d: +12.2mm
Playability:
62/100
Good
Closure: 47%
Moderate
PARTIAL
🌡️ 4–9°C
🌧️ 0.0mm
💨 18km/h
☁️ 76%
💧 Balance: 36mm
📊 Sat: 79%
🔄 Net 7d: -1.1mm
Playability:
62/100
Good
Closure: 47%
Moderate
PARTIAL
🌡️ 4–7°C
🌧️ 0.0mm
💨 20km/h
☁️ 99%
💧 Balance: 34mm
📊 Sat: 76%
🔄 Net 7d: -2.2mm
Playability:
52/100
Playable
Closure: 47%
Moderate
PARTIAL
🌡️ 4–8°C
🌧️ 0.0mm
💨 8km/h
☁️ 98%
💧 Balance: 32mm
📊 Sat: 72%
🔄 Net 7d: -5.0mm
Playability:
62/100
Good
Closure: 48%
Moderate
PARTIAL
🌡️ 2–11°C
🌧️ 0.0mm
💨 16km/h
☁️ 11%
💧 Balance: 30mm
📊 Sat: 67%
🔄 Net 7d: -5.0mm
Playability:
67/100
Good
Closure: 48%
Moderate
PARTIAL
🌡️ 3–12°C
🌧️ 0.0mm
💨 22km/h
☁️ 52%
💧 Balance: 28mm
📊 Sat: 62%
🔄 Net 7d: -7.1mm
Playability:
67/100
Good
Closure: 57%
Moderate
CLOSED
🌡️ 4–11°C
🌧️ 0.0mm
💨 21km/h
☁️ 63%
💧 Balance: 26mm
📊 Sat: 57%
🔄 Net 7d: -7.3mm
Playability:
62/100
Good
Closure: 57%
Moderate
CLOSED
🌡️ 2–11°C
🌧️ 0.0mm
💨 28km/h
☁️ 54%
💧 Balance: 24mm
📊 Sat: 53%
🔄 Net 7d: -7.5mm
Playability:
52/100
Playable
Closure: 40%
Low
OPEN
🌡️ 4–10°C
🌧️ 0.6mm
💨 30km/h
☁️ 100%
💧 Balance: 23mm
📊 Sat: 51%
🔄 Net 7d: -6.9mm
Playability:
61/100
Good
Feature importance from the trained model — these are the weather/soil factors most predictive of Cold Ashby closing.
Closure Score Lag1
0.5837
Soil Moisture 28 To 100Cm Mean 7D Avg
0.0586
Soil Moisture 28 To 100Cm Mean
0.0408
Soil Moisture 7 To 28Cm Mean
0.0345
Model: Histogram Gradient Boosted Regressor (ordinal: open → partial → closed)
Training data: 117 days (26 closed, 8 partial, 83 open)
Training fit: Accuracy 100% | κ 1.000 | R² 0.977
Cross-validation: 5-fold TimeSeriesSplit — R² -2.922 ± 1.278 (limited by seasonal data — improves with more winters)
Thresholds: OPEN < 0.45 | PARTIAL | 0.55 < CLOSED (auto-optimised)
Features: 25 selected from 71 candidates
Soil model: Clay bucket model (field capacity 45.0mm, drainage rate 0.03/day)
Note: Predictions improve significantly with more labelled closure data. Target: 60+ days for robust estimates.