Closure: 50%
Moderate
PARTIAL
🌡️ 8–12°C
🌧️ 6.8mm
💨 31km/h
☁️ 87%
💧 Balance: 44mm
📊 Sat: 98%
🔄 Net 7d: +5.7mm
Playability:
15/100
Overstone with Tez
Closure: 52%
Moderate
PARTIAL
🌡️ 6–12°C
🌧️ 10.2mm
💨 23km/h
☁️ 100%
💧 Balance: 45mm
📊 Sat: 100%
🔄 Net 7d: +15.2mm
Playability:
10/100
Overstone with Tez
Closure: 60%
Moderate
CLOSED
🌡️ 3–9°C
🌧️ 1.1mm
💨 17km/h
☁️ 72%
💧 Balance: 44mm
📊 Sat: 98%
🔄 Net 7d: +14.7mm
Playability:
26/100
Grim
Closure: 58%
Moderate
CLOSED
🌡️ 5–12°C
🌧️ 3.0mm
💨 30km/h
☁️ 98%
💧 Balance: 45mm
📊 Sat: 100%
🔄 Net 7d: +16.8mm
Playability:
21/100
Grim
Closure: 57%
Moderate
CLOSED
🌡️ 5–11°C
🌧️ 3.3mm
💨 30km/h
☁️ 94%
💧 Balance: 45mm
📊 Sat: 100%
🔄 Net 7d: +17.9mm
Playability:
17/100
Overstone with Tez
Closure: 58%
Moderate
CLOSED
🌡️ 2–7°C
🌧️ 1.2mm
💨 29km/h
☁️ 69%
💧 Balance: 44mm
📊 Sat: 97%
🔄 Net 7d: +18.8mm
Playability:
6/100
Overstone with Tez
Closure: 62%
High
CLOSED
🌡️ 2–10°C
🌧️ 0.4mm
💨 22km/h
☁️ 84%
💧 Balance: 42mm
📊 Sat: 93%
🔄 Net 7d: +19.4mm
Playability:
44/100
Playable
Closure: 60%
High
CLOSED
🌡️ 4–10°C
🌧️ 7.3mm
💨 23km/h
☁️ 100%
💧 Balance: 45mm
📊 Sat: 100%
🔄 Net 7d: +20.2mm
Playability:
15/100
Overstone with Tez
Closure: 53%
Moderate
PARTIAL
🌡️ 1–8°C
🌧️ 0.5mm
💨 25km/h
☁️ 14%
💧 Balance: 43mm
📊 Sat: 95%
🔄 Net 7d: +9.4mm
Playability:
29/100
Grim
Closure: 54%
Moderate
PARTIAL
🌡️ 0–9°C
🌧️ 0.5mm
💨 18km/h
☁️ 66%
💧 Balance: 41mm
📊 Sat: 91%
🔄 Net 7d: +8.4mm
Playability:
48/100
Playable
Closure: 50%
Moderate
PARTIAL
🌡️ 2–9°C
🌧️ 0.1mm
💨 12km/h
☁️ 52%
💧 Balance: 38mm
📊 Sat: 85%
🔄 Net 7d: +4.9mm
Playability:
50/100
Playable
Closure: 50%
Moderate
PARTIAL
🌡️ -0–10°C
🌧️ 0.0mm
💨 26km/h
☁️ 66%
💧 Balance: 36mm
📊 Sat: 81%
🔄 Net 7d: +1.6mm
Playability:
41/100
Playable
Closure: 47%
Moderate
PARTIAL
🌡️ 3–12°C
🌧️ 0.0mm
💨 37km/h
☁️ 58%
💧 Balance: 34mm
📊 Sat: 74%
🔄 Net 7d: -0.2mm
Playability:
37/100
Grim
Closure: 48%
Moderate
PARTIAL
🌡️ 2–9°C
🌧️ 1.8mm
💨 8km/h
☁️ 41%
💧 Balance: 34mm
📊 Sat: 74%
🔄 Net 7d: +1.4mm
Playability:
52/100
Playable
Closure: 46%
Moderate
PARTIAL
🌡️ -2–9°C
🌧️ 0.0mm
💨 31km/h
☁️ 30%
💧 Balance: 31mm
📊 Sat: 70%
🔄 Net 7d: -7.1mm
Playability:
48/100
Playable
Closure: 50%
Moderate
PARTIAL
🌡️ -1–12°C
🌧️ 0.0mm
💨 28km/h
☁️ 44%
💧 Balance: 29mm
📊 Sat: 65%
🔄 Net 7d: -7.7mm
Playability:
56/100
Playable
Feature importance from the trained model — these are the weather/soil factors most predictive of Cold Ashby closing.
Closure Score Lag1
0.5846
Soil Moisture 28 To 100Cm Mean
0.0591
Soil Moisture 7 To 28Cm Mean 7D Avg
0.0267
Soil Moisture 28 To 100Cm Mean 7D Avg
0.0213
Model: Histogram Gradient Boosted Regressor (ordinal: open → partial → closed)
Training data: 118 days (26 closed, 9 partial, 83 open)
Training fit: Accuracy 100% | κ 1.000 | R² 0.981
Cross-validation: 5-fold TimeSeriesSplit — R² -1.817 ± 0.170 (limited by seasonal data — improves with more winters)
Thresholds: OPEN < 0.40 | PARTIAL | 0.55 < CLOSED (auto-optimised)
Features: 25 selected from 71 candidates
Soil model: Clay bucket model (field capacity 45.0mm, drainage rate 0.03/day)
Note: Predictions improve significantly with more labelled closure data. Target: 60+ days for robust estimates.