Closure: 50%
Moderate
PARTIAL
🌡️ 9–14°C
🌧️ 0.0mm
💨 17km/h
☁️ 89%
💧 Balance: 39mm
📊 Sat: 86%
🔄 Net 7d: +4.6mm
Playability:
55/100
Playable
Closure: 52%
Moderate
PARTIAL
🌡️ 9–12°C
🌧️ 3.9mm
💨 24km/h
☁️ 92%
💧 Balance: 41mm
📊 Sat: 91%
🔄 Net 7d: +2.9mm
Playability:
45/100
Playable
Closure: 49%
Moderate
PARTIAL
🌡️ 7–12°C
🌧️ 5.1mm
💨 18km/h
☁️ 99%
💧 Balance: 44mm
📊 Sat: 99%
🔄 Net 7d: +6.9mm
Playability:
26/100
Grim
Closure: 49%
Moderate
PARTIAL
🌡️ 4–8°C
🌧️ 8.7mm
💨 13km/h
☁️ 75%
💧 Balance: 45mm
📊 Sat: 100%
🔄 Net 7d: +14.2mm
Playability:
21/100
Grim
Closure: 49%
Moderate
PARTIAL
🌡️ 4–10°C
🌧️ 1.5mm
💨 22km/h
☁️ 94%
💧 Balance: 45mm
📊 Sat: 99%
🔄 Net 7d: +15.1mm
Playability:
31/100
Grim
Closure: 49%
Moderate
PARTIAL
🌡️ 4–13°C
🌧️ 0.0mm
💨 18km/h
☁️ 70%
💧 Balance: 42mm
📊 Sat: 94%
🔄 Net 7d: +13.0mm
Playability:
56/100
Playable
Closure: 47%
Moderate
PARTIAL
🌡️ 6–12°C
🌧️ 4.9mm
💨 14km/h
☁️ 93%
💧 Balance: 45mm
📊 Sat: 100%
🔄 Net 7d: +18.1mm
Playability:
37/100
Grim
Closure: 47%
Moderate
PARTIAL
🌡️ 3–9°C
🌧️ 0.2mm
💨 14km/h
☁️ 50%
💧 Balance: 43mm
📊 Sat: 95%
🔄 Net 7d: +18.3mm
Playability:
42/100
Playable
Closure: 51%
Moderate
PARTIAL
🌡️ 5–12°C
🌧️ 0.0mm
💨 29km/h
☁️ 43%
💧 Balance: 40mm
📊 Sat: 89%
🔄 Net 7d: +13.9mm
Playability:
40/100
Playable
Closure: 46%
Moderate
PARTIAL
🌡️ 2–8°C
🌧️ 1.2mm
💨 22km/h
☁️ 72%
💧 Balance: 39mm
📊 Sat: 88%
🔄 Net 7d: +9.7mm
Playability:
43/100
Playable
Closure: 43%
Moderate
PARTIAL
🌡️ 1–9°C
🌧️ 0.0mm
💨 13km/h
☁️ 32%
💧 Balance: 37mm
📊 Sat: 82%
🔄 Net 7d: +0.3mm
Playability:
54/100
Playable
Closure: 43%
Moderate
PARTIAL
🌡️ 1–10°C
🌧️ 0.0mm
💨 16km/h
☁️ 60%
💧 Balance: 34mm
📊 Sat: 77%
🔄 Net 7d: -2.0mm
Playability:
54/100
Playable
Closure: 43%
Moderate
PARTIAL
🌡️ 0–8°C
🌧️ 0.0mm
💨 21km/h
☁️ 43%
💧 Balance: 32mm
📊 Sat: 72%
🔄 Net 7d: -2.1mm
Playability:
54/100
Playable
Closure: 43%
Moderate
PARTIAL
🌡️ -3–5°C
🌧️ 0.0mm
💨 24km/h
☁️ 43%
💧 Balance: 31mm
📊 Sat: 68%
🔄 Net 7d: -7.2mm
Playability:
44/100
Playable
Closure: 44%
Moderate
PARTIAL
🌡️ -3–6°C
🌧️ 0.0mm
💨 27km/h
☁️ 29%
💧 Balance: 29mm
📊 Sat: 64%
🔄 Net 7d: -7.6mm
Playability:
34/100
Grim
Closure: 43%
Moderate
PARTIAL
🌡️ -1–4°C
🌧️ 0.2mm
💨 37km/h
☁️ 54%
💧 Balance: 27mm
📊 Sat: 60%
🔄 Net 7d: -7.6mm
Playability:
19/100
Overstone with Tez
Feature importance from the trained model — these are the weather/soil factors most predictive of Cold Ashby closing.
Closure Score Lag1
0.5491
Soil Moisture 28 To 100Cm Mean
0.0578
Soil Moisture 7 To 28Cm Mean 7D Avg
0.0368
Soil Moisture 28 To 100Cm Mean 7D Avg
0.0260
Model: Histogram Gradient Boosted Regressor (ordinal: open → partial → closed)
Training data: 117 days (26 closed, 8 partial, 83 open)
Training fit: Accuracy 100% | κ 1.000 | R² 0.982
Cross-validation: 5-fold TimeSeriesSplit — R² -2.751 ± 1.381 (limited by seasonal data — improves with more winters)
Thresholds: OPEN < 0.40 | PARTIAL | 0.55 < CLOSED (auto-optimised)
Features: 25 selected from 71 candidates
Soil model: Clay bucket model (field capacity 45.0mm, drainage rate 0.03/day)
Note: Predictions improve significantly with more labelled closure data. Target: 60+ days for robust estimates.