Closure: 87%
Very High
CLOSED
🌡️ 6–10°C
🌧️ 0.1mm
💨 14km/h
☁️ 89%
💧 Balance: 38mm
📊 Sat: 85%
🔄 Net 7d: +18.2mm
Playability:
32/100
Grim
Closure: 78%
High
CLOSED
🌡️ 4–12°C
🌧️ 0.0mm
💨 12km/h
☁️ 33%
💧 Balance: 36mm
📊 Sat: 80%
🔄 Net 7d: +18.3mm
Playability:
46/100
Playable
Closure: 78%
High
CLOSED
🌡️ 5–15°C
🌧️ 0.0mm
💨 17km/h
☁️ 12%
💧 Balance: 34mm
📊 Sat: 75%
🔄 Net 7d: +12.6mm
Playability:
52/100
Playable
Closure: 78%
High
CLOSED
🌡️ 6–10°C
🌧️ 1.8mm
💨 16km/h
☁️ 88%
💧 Balance: 34mm
📊 Sat: 76%
🔄 Net 7d: +2.4mm
Playability:
37/100
Grim
Closure: 78%
High
CLOSED
🌡️ 5–8°C
🌧️ 1.8mm
💨 14km/h
☁️ 99%
💧 Balance: 34mm
📊 Sat: 76%
🔄 Net 7d: -3.2mm
Playability:
36/100
Grim
Closure: 69%
High
CLOSED
🌡️ 5–8°C
🌧️ 0.0mm
💨 12km/h
☁️ 99%
💧 Balance: 33mm
📊 Sat: 72%
🔄 Net 7d: -3.3mm
Playability:
51/100
Playable
Closure: 69%
High
CLOSED
🌡️ 4–12°C
🌧️ 0.0mm
💨 18km/h
☁️ 56%
💧 Balance: 31mm
📊 Sat: 68%
🔄 Net 7d: -2.5mm
Playability:
56/100
Playable
Closure: 69%
High
CLOSED
🌡️ 4–11°C
🌧️ 0.0mm
💨 20km/h
☁️ 49%
💧 Balance: 29mm
📊 Sat: 65%
🔄 Net 7d: -2.7mm
Playability:
56/100
Playable
Closure: 69%
High
CLOSED
🌡️ 5–11°C
🌧️ 3.0mm
💨 20km/h
☁️ 67%
💧 Balance: 30mm
📊 Sat: 67%
🔄 Net 7d: +0.4mm
Playability:
51/100
Playable
Closure: 69%
High
CLOSED
🌡️ 3–10°C
🌧️ 0.5mm
💨 22km/h
☁️ 69%
💧 Balance: 29mm
📊 Sat: 64%
🔄 Net 7d: +1.4mm
Playability:
56/100
Playable
Closure: 70%
High
CLOSED
🌡️ 9–13°C
🌧️ 1.9mm
💨 32km/h
☁️ 96%
💧 Balance: 29mm
📊 Sat: 64%
🔄 Net 7d: +0.8mm
Playability:
40/100
Playable
Closure: 66%
High
CLOSED
🌡️ 9–14°C
🌧️ 0.0mm
💨 32km/h
☁️ 98%
💧 Balance: 27mm
📊 Sat: 59%
🔄 Net 7d: -1.9mm
Playability:
53/100
Playable
Closure: 66%
High
CLOSED
🌡️ 7–11°C
🌧️ 0.0mm
💨 16km/h
☁️ 94%
💧 Balance: 24mm
📊 Sat: 54%
🔄 Net 7d: -2.6mm
Playability:
63/100
Good
Closure: 65%
High
CLOSED
🌡️ 4–9°C
🌧️ 1.8mm
💨 16km/h
☁️ 79%
💧 Balance: 24mm
📊 Sat: 54%
🔄 Net 7d: -1.2mm
Playability:
48/100
Playable
Closure: 65%
High
CLOSED
🌡️ 2–11°C
🌧️ 3.0mm
💨 25km/h
☁️ 73%
💧 Balance: 25mm
📊 Sat: 55%
🔄 Net 7d: +0.7mm
Playability:
48/100
Playable
Closure: 65%
High
CLOSED
🌡️ 6–12°C
🌧️ 0.2mm
💨 12km/h
☁️ 89%
💧 Balance: 24mm
📊 Sat: 52%
🔄 Net 7d: -1.6mm
Playability:
63/100
Good
Feature importance from the trained model — these are the weather/soil factors most predictive of Cold Ashby closing.
Closure Score Lag1
0.6736
Soil Moisture 28 To 100Cm Mean
0.0427
Soil Moisture 28 To 100Cm Mean 7D Avg
0.0375
Soil Moisture 7 To 28Cm Mean 7D Avg
0.0224
Model: Histogram Gradient Boosted Regressor (ordinal: open → partial → closed)
Training data: 122 days (29 closed, 10 partial, 83 open)
Training fit: Accuracy 100% | κ 1.000 | R² 0.980
Cross-validation: 5-fold TimeSeriesSplit — R² -2.003 ± 0.111 (limited by seasonal data — improves with more winters)
Thresholds: OPEN < 0.40 | PARTIAL | 0.55 < CLOSED (auto-optimised)
Features: 25 selected from 71 candidates
Soil model: Clay bucket model (field capacity 45.0mm, drainage rate 0.03/day)
Note: Predictions improve significantly with more labelled closure data. Target: 60+ days for robust estimates.