Closure: 100%
Very High
CLOSED
🌡️ 3–8°C
🌧️ 4.8mm
💨 25km/h
☁️ 77%
💧 Balance: 45mm
📊 Sat: 100%
🔄 Net 7d: +18.6mm
Playability:
0/100
Overstone with Tez
Closure: 100%
Very High
CLOSED
🌡️ 4–12°C
🌧️ 0.6mm
💨 25km/h
☁️ 90%
💧 Balance: 44mm
📊 Sat: 97%
🔄 Net 7d: +18.4mm
Playability:
20/100
Grim
Closure: 61%
High
CLOSED
🌡️ 7–13°C
🌧️ 0.0mm
💨 23km/h
☁️ 45%
💧 Balance: 41mm
📊 Sat: 91%
🔄 Net 7d: +16.1mm
Playability:
50/100
Playable
Closure: 61%
High
CLOSED
🌡️ 6–7°C
🌧️ 5.3mm
💨 21km/h
☁️ 96%
💧 Balance: 44mm
📊 Sat: 98%
🔄 Net 7d: +21.4mm
Playability:
15/100
Overstone with Tez
Closure: 44%
Moderate
OPEN
🌡️ 6–10°C
🌧️ 0.1mm
💨 12km/h
☁️ 73%
💧 Balance: 42mm
📊 Sat: 94%
🔄 Net 7d: +21.9mm
Playability:
53/100
Playable
Closure: 47%
Moderate
PARTIAL
🌡️ 7–14°C
🌧️ 0.0mm
💨 14km/h
☁️ 43%
💧 Balance: 39mm
📊 Sat: 88%
🔄 Net 7d: +16.2mm
Playability:
57/100
Playable
Closure: 34%
Low
OPEN
🌡️ 7–9°C
🌧️ 6.1mm
💨 14km/h
☁️ 100%
💧 Balance: 43mm
📊 Sat: 95%
🔄 Net 7d: +9.1mm
Playability:
29/100
Grim
Closure: 34%
Low
OPEN
🌡️ 6–13°C
🌧️ 0.1mm
💨 7km/h
☁️ 62%
💧 Balance: 41mm
📊 Sat: 90%
🔄 Net 7d: +3.8mm
Playability:
63/100
Good
Closure: 34%
Low
OPEN
🌡️ 3–10°C
🌧️ 0.0mm
💨 6km/h
☁️ 26%
💧 Balance: 38mm
📊 Sat: 85%
🔄 Net 7d: +2.7mm
Playability:
69/100
Good
Closure: 34%
Low
OPEN
🌡️ 2–8°C
🌧️ 0.0mm
💨 8km/h
☁️ 38%
💧 Balance: 36mm
📊 Sat: 80%
🔄 Net 7d: +3.1mm
Playability:
69/100
Good
Closure: 32%
Low
OPEN
🌡️ 1–10°C
🌧️ 0.0mm
💨 9km/h
☁️ 59%
💧 Balance: 34mm
📊 Sat: 75%
🔄 Net 7d: -2.6mm
Playability:
69/100
Good
Closure: 45%
Moderate
PARTIAL
🌡️ 2–8°C
🌧️ 0.0mm
💨 11km/h
☁️ 50%
💧 Balance: 32mm
📊 Sat: 70%
🔄 Net 7d: -3.0mm
Playability:
53/100
Playable
Closure: 47%
Moderate
PARTIAL
🌡️ 0–9°C
🌧️ 0.0mm
💨 19km/h
☁️ 19%
💧 Balance: 29mm
📊 Sat: 65%
🔄 Net 7d: -2.9mm
Playability:
57/100
Playable
Closure: 48%
Moderate
PARTIAL
🌡️ 2–11°C
🌧️ 0.0mm
💨 20km/h
☁️ 41%
💧 Balance: 27mm
📊 Sat: 60%
🔄 Net 7d: -9.1mm
Playability:
66/100
Good
Closure: 34%
Low
OPEN
🌡️ 3–12°C
🌧️ 0.0mm
💨 20km/h
☁️ 53%
💧 Balance: 25mm
📊 Sat: 55%
🔄 Net 7d: -9.4mm
Playability:
73/100
Good
Closure: 35%
Low
OPEN
🌡️ 6–11°C
🌧️ 2.7mm
💨 38km/h
☁️ 97%
💧 Balance: 26mm
📊 Sat: 58%
🔄 Net 7d: -6.2mm
Playability:
43/100
Playable
Feature importance from the trained model — these are the weather/soil factors most predictive of Cold Ashby closing.
Closure Score Lag1
0.5930
Soil Moisture 28 To 100Cm Mean
0.0664
Closure Score Lag2
0.0254
Soil Moisture 7 To 28Cm Mean 7D Avg
0.0181
Model: Histogram Gradient Boosted Regressor (ordinal: open → partial → closed)
Training data: 120 days (27 closed, 10 partial, 83 open)
Training fit: Accuracy 100% | κ 1.000 | R² 0.980
Cross-validation: 5-fold TimeSeriesSplit — R² -1.116 ± 0.136 (limited by seasonal data — improves with more winters)
Thresholds: OPEN < 0.45 | PARTIAL | 0.55 < CLOSED (auto-optimised)
Features: 25 selected from 71 candidates
Soil model: Clay bucket model (field capacity 45.0mm, drainage rate 0.03/day)
Note: Predictions improve significantly with more labelled closure data. Target: 60+ days for robust estimates.