Closure: 50%
Moderate
PARTIAL
🌡️ 8–12°C
🌧️ 0.0mm
💨 16km/h
☁️ 77%
💧 Balance: 41mm
📊 Sat: 91%
🔄 Net 7d: +9.7mm
Playability:
55/100
Playable
Closure: 40%
Low
PARTIAL
🌡️ 8–15°C
🌧️ 0.0mm
💨 17km/h
☁️ 69%
💧 Balance: 39mm
📊 Sat: 86%
🔄 Net 7d: +4.6mm
Playability:
61/100
Good
Closure: 39%
Low
PARTIAL
🌡️ 9–11°C
🌧️ 3.6mm
💨 22km/h
☁️ 89%
💧 Balance: 41mm
📊 Sat: 91%
🔄 Net 7d: +2.7mm
Playability:
51/100
Playable
Closure: 40%
Low
PARTIAL
🌡️ 5–11°C
🌧️ 3.4mm
💨 22km/h
☁️ 78%
💧 Balance: 42mm
📊 Sat: 94%
🔄 Net 7d: +4.6mm
Playability:
51/100
Playable
Closure: 40%
Low
PARTIAL
🌡️ 5–9°C
🌧️ 2.1mm
💨 16km/h
☁️ 78%
💧 Balance: 42mm
📊 Sat: 94%
🔄 Net 7d: +5.1mm
Playability:
46/100
Playable
Closure: 40%
Low
PARTIAL
🌡️ 6–11°C
🌧️ 0.3mm
💨 27km/h
☁️ 93%
💧 Balance: 41mm
📊 Sat: 90%
🔄 Net 7d: +4.4mm
Playability:
51/100
Playable
Closure: 38%
Low
PARTIAL
🌡️ 8–14°C
🌧️ 0.0mm
💨 18km/h
☁️ 78%
💧 Balance: 38mm
📊 Sat: 85%
🔄 Net 7d: +2.5mm
Playability:
61/100
Good
Closure: 38%
Low
PARTIAL
🌡️ 2–10°C
🌧️ 0.3mm
💨 18km/h
☁️ 62%
💧 Balance: 36mm
📊 Sat: 81%
🔄 Net 7d: +2.5mm
Playability:
66/100
Good
Closure: 38%
Low
PARTIAL
🌡️ 1–10°C
🌧️ 0.0mm
💨 14km/h
☁️ 50%
💧 Balance: 34mm
📊 Sat: 76%
🔄 Net 7d: +2.4mm
Playability:
56/100
Playable
Closure: 38%
Low
PARTIAL
🌡️ 2–8°C
🌧️ 0.9mm
💨 10km/h
☁️ 95%
💧 Balance: 33mm
📊 Sat: 74%
🔄 Net 7d: -0.3mm
Playability:
56/100
Playable
Closure: 43%
Moderate
PARTIAL
🌡️ 0–6°C
🌧️ 3.6mm
💨 29km/h
☁️ 76%
💧 Balance: 36mm
📊 Sat: 79%
🔄 Net 7d: +0.6mm
Playability:
34/100
Grim
Closure: 42%
Moderate
PARTIAL
🌡️ -0–5°C
🌧️ 0.0mm
💨 34km/h
☁️ 36%
💧 Balance: 34mm
📊 Sat: 75%
🔄 Net 7d: -1.8mm
Playability:
44/100
Playable
Closure: 29%
Low
OPEN
🌡️ 0–6°C
🌧️ 0.0mm
💨 32km/h
☁️ 36%
💧 Balance: 32mm
📊 Sat: 71%
🔄 Net 7d: -2.3mm
Playability:
51/100
Playable
Closure: 35%
Low
PARTIAL
🌡️ -1–4°C
🌧️ 0.3mm
💨 26km/h
☁️ 57%
💧 Balance: 31mm
📊 Sat: 68%
🔄 Net 7d: -1.8mm
Playability:
38/100
Grim
Closure: 35%
Low
PARTIAL
🌡️ -1–5°C
🌧️ 0.0mm
💨 20km/h
☁️ 59%
💧 Balance: 29mm
📊 Sat: 65%
🔄 Net 7d: -1.9mm
Playability:
48/100
Playable
Closure: 35%
Low
PARTIAL
🌡️ 0–6°C
🌧️ 0.3mm
💨 26km/h
☁️ 76%
💧 Balance: 27mm
📊 Sat: 61%
🔄 Net 7d: -1.5mm
Playability:
53/100
Playable
Feature importance from the trained model — these are the weather/soil factors most predictive of Cold Ashby closing.
Closure Score Lag1
0.4268
Soil Moisture 28 To 100Cm Mean 7D Avg
0.0833
Soil Moisture 28 To 100Cm Mean
0.0805
Soil Moisture 7 To 28Cm Mean 7D Avg
0.0333
Soil Moisture 0 To 7Cm Mean 7D Avg
0.0127
Model: Histogram Gradient Boosted Regressor (ordinal: open → partial → closed)
Training data: 116 days (26 closed, 7 partial, 83 open)
Training fit: Accuracy 100% | κ 1.000 | R² 0.985
Cross-validation: 5-fold TimeSeriesSplit — R² -4.802 ± 3.435 (limited by seasonal data — improves with more winters)
Thresholds: OPEN < 0.35 | PARTIAL | 0.55 < CLOSED (auto-optimised)
Features: 25 selected from 71 candidates
Soil model: Clay bucket model (field capacity 45.0mm, drainage rate 0.03/day)
Note: Predictions improve significantly with more labelled closure data. Target: 60+ days for robust estimates.