Closure: 100%
Very High
CLOSED
🌡️ 8–15°C
🌧️ 0.0mm
💨 25km/h
☁️ 54%
💧 Balance: 40mm
📊 Sat: 89%
🔄 Net 7d: +18.1mm
Playability:
30/100
Grim
Closure: 76%
High
CLOSED
🌡️ 5–9°C
🌧️ 0.2mm
💨 17km/h
☁️ 75%
💧 Balance: 38mm
📊 Sat: 85%
🔄 Net 7d: +18.2mm
Playability:
37/100
Grim
Closure: 73%
High
CLOSED
🌡️ 4–12°C
🌧️ 0.0mm
💨 16km/h
☁️ 64%
💧 Balance: 36mm
📊 Sat: 80%
🔄 Net 7d: +18.4mm
Playability:
49/100
Playable
Closure: 74%
High
CLOSED
🌡️ 6–14°C
🌧️ 1.8mm
💨 19km/h
☁️ 30%
💧 Balance: 36mm
📊 Sat: 79%
🔄 Net 7d: +14.6mm
Playability:
44/100
Playable
Closure: 73%
High
CLOSED
🌡️ 4–9°C
🌧️ 0.9mm
💨 24km/h
☁️ 93%
💧 Balance: 35mm
📊 Sat: 78%
🔄 Net 7d: +3.4mm
Playability:
49/100
Playable
Closure: 72%
High
CLOSED
🌡️ 1–9°C
🌧️ 0.0mm
💨 19km/h
☁️ 53%
💧 Balance: 33mm
📊 Sat: 74%
🔄 Net 7d: -4.4mm
Playability:
50/100
Playable
Closure: 69%
High
CLOSED
🌡️ 3–8°C
🌧️ 0.0mm
💨 16km/h
☁️ 73%
💧 Balance: 31mm
📊 Sat: 70%
🔄 Net 7d: -4.4mm
Playability:
56/100
Playable
Closure: 69%
High
CLOSED
🌡️ 3–8°C
🌧️ 2.4mm
💨 19km/h
☁️ 64%
💧 Balance: 32mm
📊 Sat: 72%
🔄 Net 7d: -1.0mm
Playability:
41/100
Playable
Closure: 69%
High
CLOSED
🌡️ 2–10°C
🌧️ 0.6mm
💨 25km/h
☁️ 41%
💧 Balance: 31mm
📊 Sat: 68%
🔄 Net 7d: -0.9mm
Playability:
46/100
Playable
Closure: 79%
High
CLOSED
🌡️ 3–10°C
🌧️ 6.3mm
💨 19km/h
☁️ 97%
💧 Balance: 35mm
📊 Sat: 79%
🔄 Net 7d: +5.6mm
Playability:
26/100
Grim
Closure: 87%
Very High
CLOSED
🌡️ 7–11°C
🌧️ 2.7mm
💨 19km/h
☁️ 96%
💧 Balance: 36mm
📊 Sat: 81%
🔄 Net 7d: +7.2mm
Playability:
37/100
Grim
Closure: 86%
Very High
CLOSED
🌡️ 8–12°C
🌧️ 0.6mm
💨 34km/h
☁️ 100%
💧 Balance: 35mm
📊 Sat: 77%
🔄 Net 7d: +6.0mm
Playability:
37/100
Grim
Closure: 97%
Very High
CLOSED
🌡️ 4–8°C
🌧️ 13.7mm
💨 34km/h
☁️ 59%
💧 Balance: 45mm
📊 Sat: 100%
🔄 Net 7d: +19.2mm
Playability:
0/100
Overstone with Tez
Closure: 93%
Very High
CLOSED
🌡️ 4–8°C
🌧️ 1.8mm
💨 37km/h
☁️ 92%
💧 Balance: 44mm
📊 Sat: 98%
🔄 Net 7d: +20.4mm
Playability:
0/100
Overstone with Tez
Closure: 100%
Very High
CLOSED
🌡️ 5–9°C
🌧️ 5.2mm
💨 34km/h
☁️ 71%
💧 Balance: 45mm
📊 Sat: 100%
🔄 Net 7d: +22.0mm
Playability:
0/100
Overstone with Tez
Closure: 94%
Very High
CLOSED
🌡️ 4–7°C
🌧️ 0.9mm
💨 36km/h
☁️ 63%
💧 Balance: 44mm
📊 Sat: 97%
🔄 Net 7d: +22.6mm
Playability:
0/100
Overstone with Tez
Feature importance from the trained model — these are the weather/soil factors most predictive of Cold Ashby closing.
Closure Score Lag1
0.8251
Soil Moisture 28 To 100Cm Mean
0.0526
Soil Moisture 7 To 28Cm Mean
0.0249
Soil Moisture 28 To 100Cm Mean 7D Avg
0.0088
Model: Histogram Gradient Boosted Regressor (ordinal: open → partial → closed)
Training data: 122 days (29 closed, 10 partial, 83 open)
Training fit: Accuracy 100% | κ 1.000 | R² 0.979
Cross-validation: 5-fold TimeSeriesSplit — R² -2.295 ± 0.406 (limited by seasonal data — improves with more winters)
Thresholds: OPEN < 0.40 | PARTIAL | 0.60 < CLOSED (auto-optimised)
Features: 25 selected from 71 candidates
Soil model: Clay bucket model (field capacity 45.0mm, drainage rate 0.03/day)
Note: Predictions improve significantly with more labelled closure data. Target: 60+ days for robust estimates.