Closure: 100%
Very High
CLOSED
🌡️ 3–12°C
🌧️ 0.2mm
💨 25km/h
☁️ 97%
💧 Balance: 43mm
📊 Sat: 96%
🔄 Net 7d: +20.8mm
Playability:
10/100
Overstone with Tez
Closure: 79%
High
CLOSED
🌡️ 7–14°C
🌧️ 0.0mm
💨 25km/h
☁️ 39%
💧 Balance: 41mm
📊 Sat: 90%
🔄 Net 7d: +18.5mm
Playability:
31/100
Grim
Closure: 76%
High
CLOSED
🌡️ 5–11°C
🌧️ 0.0mm
💨 11km/h
☁️ 84%
💧 Balance: 38mm
📊 Sat: 85%
🔄 Net 7d: +18.1mm
Playability:
52/100
Playable
Closure: 71%
High
CLOSED
🌡️ 4–10°C
🌧️ 0.0mm
💨 13km/h
☁️ 92%
💧 Balance: 36mm
📊 Sat: 80%
🔄 Net 7d: +18.1mm
Playability:
50/100
Playable
Closure: 70%
High
CLOSED
🌡️ 4–13°C
🌧️ 3.0mm
💨 22km/h
☁️ 62%
💧 Balance: 36mm
📊 Sat: 81%
🔄 Net 7d: +15.4mm
Playability:
41/100
Playable
Closure: 56%
Moderate
CLOSED
🌡️ 2–8°C
🌧️ 0.0mm
💨 18km/h
☁️ 47%
💧 Balance: 35mm
📊 Sat: 77%
🔄 Net 7d: +3.1mm
Playability:
47/100
Playable
Closure: 53%
Moderate
PARTIAL
🌡️ 0–10°C
🌧️ 0.0mm
💨 14km/h
☁️ 1%
💧 Balance: 32mm
📊 Sat: 72%
🔄 Net 7d: -5.2mm
Playability:
59/100
Playable
Closure: 48%
Moderate
PARTIAL
🌡️ 1–10°C
🌧️ 0.0mm
💨 15km/h
☁️ 50%
💧 Balance: 30mm
📊 Sat: 68%
🔄 Net 7d: -5.8mm
Playability:
66/100
Good
Closure: 48%
Moderate
PARTIAL
🌡️ 5–9°C
🌧️ 0.0mm
💨 12km/h
☁️ 37%
💧 Balance: 28mm
📊 Sat: 63%
🔄 Net 7d: -5.5mm
Playability:
67/100
Good
Closure: 48%
Moderate
PARTIAL
🌡️ 4–10°C
🌧️ 0.0mm
💨 10km/h
☁️ 52%
💧 Balance: 26mm
📊 Sat: 58%
🔄 Net 7d: -5.5mm
Playability:
67/100
Good
Closure: 48%
Moderate
PARTIAL
🌡️ 1–8°C
🌧️ 2.1mm
💨 11km/h
☁️ 81%
💧 Balance: 27mm
📊 Sat: 60%
🔄 Net 7d: -2.9mm
Playability:
47/100
Playable
Closure: 47%
Moderate
PARTIAL
🌡️ 2–9°C
🌧️ 7.5mm
💨 9km/h
☁️ 98%
💧 Balance: 33mm
📊 Sat: 74%
🔄 Net 7d: +2.7mm
Playability:
42/100
Playable
Closure: 44%
Moderate
PARTIAL
🌡️ 0–10°C
🌧️ 0.6mm
💨 15km/h
☁️ 95%
💧 Balance: 32mm
📊 Sat: 71%
🔄 Net 7d: +2.9mm
Playability:
63/100
Good
Closure: 46%
Moderate
PARTIAL
🌡️ 5–7°C
🌧️ 1.2mm
💨 29km/h
☁️ 96%
💧 Balance: 32mm
📊 Sat: 71%
🔄 Net 7d: +5.3mm
Playability:
42/100
Playable
Closure: 16%
Very Low
OPEN
🌡️ 2–8°C
🌧️ 0.0mm
💨 31km/h
☁️ 94%
💧 Balance: 30mm
📊 Sat: 67%
🔄 Net 7d: +5.6mm
Playability:
72/100
Good
Closure: 16%
Very Low
OPEN
🌡️ 3–11°C
🌧️ 3.1mm
💨 49km/h
☁️ 100%
💧 Balance: 32mm
📊 Sat: 71%
🔄 Net 7d: +9.3mm
Playability:
47/100
Playable
Feature importance from the trained model — these are the weather/soil factors most predictive of Cold Ashby closing.
Closure Score Lag1
0.5111
Soil Moisture 28 To 100Cm Mean 7D Avg
0.0301
Soil Moisture 7 To 28Cm Mean 7D Avg
0.0229
Soil Moisture 28 To 100Cm Mean
0.0212
Model: Histogram Gradient Boosted Regressor (ordinal: open → partial → closed)
Training data: 121 days (28 closed, 10 partial, 83 open)
Training fit: Accuracy 100% | κ 1.000 | R² 0.989
Cross-validation: 5-fold TimeSeriesSplit — R² -1.675 ± 0.474 (limited by seasonal data — improves with more winters)
Thresholds: OPEN < 0.30 | PARTIAL | 0.55 < CLOSED (auto-optimised)
Features: 25 selected from 71 candidates
Soil model: Clay bucket model (field capacity 45.0mm, drainage rate 0.03/day)
Note: Predictions improve significantly with more labelled closure data. Target: 60+ days for robust estimates.