Closure: 50%
Moderate
PARTIAL
🌡️ 8–14°C
🌧️ 0.0mm
💨 18km/h
☁️ 68%
💧 Balance: 41mm
📊 Sat: 91%
🔄 Net 7d: +9.6mm
Playability:
55/100
Playable
Closure: 38%
Low
PARTIAL
🌡️ 8–15°C
🌧️ 0.0mm
💨 18km/h
☁️ 89%
💧 Balance: 39mm
📊 Sat: 86%
🔄 Net 7d: +4.5mm
Playability:
62/100
Good
Closure: 38%
Low
PARTIAL
🌡️ 9–12°C
🌧️ 2.4mm
💨 24km/h
☁️ 93%
💧 Balance: 39mm
📊 Sat: 87%
🔄 Net 7d: +1.2mm
Playability:
52/100
Playable
Closure: 38%
Low
PARTIAL
🌡️ 6–12°C
🌧️ 0.8mm
💨 30km/h
☁️ 89%
💧 Balance: 38mm
📊 Sat: 84%
🔄 Net 7d: +0.3mm
Playability:
62/100
Good
Closure: 38%
Low
PARTIAL
🌡️ 4–10°C
🌧️ 0.0mm
💨 11km/h
☁️ 77%
💧 Balance: 36mm
📊 Sat: 80%
🔄 Net 7d: -1.4mm
Playability:
67/100
Good
Closure: 38%
Low
PARTIAL
🌡️ 3–11°C
🌧️ 0.0mm
💨 26km/h
☁️ 69%
💧 Balance: 34mm
📊 Sat: 75%
🔄 Net 7d: -2.8mm
Playability:
57/100
Playable
Closure: 38%
Low
PARTIAL
🌡️ 5–13°C
🌧️ 0.0mm
💨 15km/h
☁️ 57%
💧 Balance: 32mm
📊 Sat: 70%
🔄 Net 7d: -4.9mm
Playability:
72/100
Good
Closure: 38%
Low
PARTIAL
🌡️ 6–14°C
🌧️ 0.0mm
💨 10km/h
☁️ 52%
💧 Balance: 29mm
📊 Sat: 65%
🔄 Net 7d: -5.2mm
Playability:
77/100
Good
Closure: 37%
Low
PARTIAL
🌡️ 6–14°C
🌧️ 0.0mm
💨 12km/h
☁️ 6%
💧 Balance: 27mm
📊 Sat: 60%
🔄 Net 7d: -5.5mm
Playability:
77/100
Good
Closure: 40%
Low
PARTIAL
🌡️ 6–13°C
🌧️ 0.0mm
💨 12km/h
☁️ 95%
💧 Balance: 25mm
📊 Sat: 56%
🔄 Net 7d: -8.0mm
Playability:
76/100
Good
Closure: 35%
Low
PARTIAL
🌡️ 6–15°C
🌧️ 0.0mm
💨 24km/h
☁️ 54%
💧 Balance: 23mm
📊 Sat: 51%
🔄 Net 7d: -9.0mm
Playability:
78/100
Good
Closure: 35%
Low
PARTIAL
🌡️ 1–7°C
🌧️ 0.0mm
💨 33km/h
☁️ 38%
💧 Balance: 21mm
📊 Sat: 47%
🔄 Net 7d: -9.3mm
Playability:
58/100
Playable
Closure: 35%
Low
PARTIAL
🌡️ -1–7°C
🌧️ 0.0mm
💨 25km/h
☁️ 28%
💧 Balance: 19mm
📊 Sat: 43%
🔄 Net 7d: -9.4mm
Playability:
68/100
Good
Closure: 35%
Low
PARTIAL
🌡️ -2–6°C
🌧️ 0.0mm
💨 20km/h
☁️ 32%
💧 Balance: 18mm
📊 Sat: 39%
🔄 Net 7d: -9.4mm
Playability:
53/100
Playable
Closure: 35%
Low
PARTIAL
🌡️ -2–6°C
🌧️ 0.0mm
💨 11km/h
☁️ 48%
💧 Balance: 16mm
📊 Sat: 35%
🔄 Net 7d: -9.4mm
Playability:
53/100
Playable
Closure: 35%
Low
PARTIAL
🌡️ -2–6°C
🌧️ 0.0mm
💨 12km/h
☁️ 84%
💧 Balance: 14mm
📊 Sat: 31%
🔄 Net 7d: -9.2mm
Playability:
53/100
Playable
Feature importance from the trained model — these are the weather/soil factors most predictive of Cold Ashby closing.
Closure Score Lag1
0.2507
Soil Moisture 28 To 100Cm Mean 7D Avg
0.1823
Soil Moisture 0 To 7Cm Mean 7D Avg
0.0163
Soil Moisture 28 To 100Cm Mean
0.0160
Model: Histogram Gradient Boosted Regressor (ordinal: open → partial → closed)
Training data: 116 days (26 closed, 7 partial, 83 open)
Training fit: Accuracy 100% | κ 1.000 | R² 0.993
Cross-validation: 5-fold TimeSeriesSplit — R² -3.703 ± 2.542 (limited by seasonal data — improves with more winters)
Thresholds: OPEN < 0.25 | PARTIAL | 0.55 < CLOSED (auto-optimised)
Features: 25 selected from 71 candidates
Soil model: Clay bucket model (field capacity 45.0mm, drainage rate 0.03/day)
Note: Predictions improve significantly with more labelled closure data. Target: 60+ days for robust estimates.