Closure: 50%
Moderate
PARTIAL
🌡️ 8–13°C
🌧️ 5.1mm
💨 20km/h
☁️ 95%
💧 Balance: 45mm
📊 Sat: 100%
🔄 Net 7d: +8.0mm
Playability:
25/100
Grim
Closure: 56%
Moderate
CLOSED
🌡️ 4–8°C
🌧️ 10.4mm
💨 30km/h
☁️ 75%
💧 Balance: 45mm
📊 Sat: 100%
🔄 Net 7d: +16.7mm
Playability:
0/100
Overstone with Tez
Closure: 59%
Moderate
CLOSED
🌡️ 4–12°C
🌧️ 2.9mm
💨 30km/h
☁️ 88%
💧 Balance: 45mm
📊 Sat: 100%
🔄 Net 7d: +18.5mm
Playability:
21/100
Grim
Closure: 59%
Moderate
CLOSED
🌡️ 5–10°C
🌧️ 0.3mm
💨 30km/h
☁️ 61%
💧 Balance: 42mm
📊 Sat: 94%
🔄 Net 7d: +16.4mm
Playability:
41/100
Playable
Closure: 52%
Moderate
PARTIAL
🌡️ 3–7°C
🌧️ 1.5mm
💨 21km/h
☁️ 99%
💧 Balance: 42mm
📊 Sat: 93%
🔄 Net 7d: +17.7mm
Playability:
40/100
Playable
Closure: 48%
Moderate
PARTIAL
🌡️ 4–11°C
🌧️ 0.0mm
💨 30km/h
☁️ 63%
💧 Balance: 40mm
📊 Sat: 88%
🔄 Net 7d: +18.1mm
Playability:
42/100
Playable
Closure: 48%
Moderate
PARTIAL
🌡️ 6–14°C
🌧️ 0.0mm
💨 29km/h
☁️ 13%
💧 Balance: 37mm
📊 Sat: 83%
🔄 Net 7d: +12.6mm
Playability:
57/100
Playable
Closure: 48%
Moderate
PARTIAL
🌡️ 7–10°C
🌧️ 0.0mm
💨 11km/h
☁️ 93%
💧 Balance: 35mm
📊 Sat: 79%
🔄 Net 7d: +7.3mm
Playability:
67/100
Good
Closure: 47%
Moderate
PARTIAL
🌡️ 6–10°C
🌧️ 0.6mm
💨 15km/h
☁️ 79%
💧 Balance: 34mm
📊 Sat: 77%
🔄 Net 7d: -2.1mm
Playability:
67/100
Good
Closure: 47%
Moderate
PARTIAL
🌡️ 6–14°C
🌧️ 0.6mm
💨 13km/h
☁️ 99%
💧 Balance: 33mm
📊 Sat: 73%
🔄 Net 7d: -4.4mm
Playability:
67/100
Good
Closure: 46%
Moderate
PARTIAL
🌡️ 5–12°C
🌧️ 0.0mm
💨 14km/h
☁️ 89%
💧 Balance: 31mm
📊 Sat: 69%
🔄 Net 7d: -4.3mm
Playability:
72/100
Good
Closure: 45%
Moderate
OPEN
🌡️ 4–10°C
🌧️ 0.0mm
💨 7km/h
☁️ 58%
💧 Balance: 29mm
📊 Sat: 65%
🔄 Net 7d: -5.6mm
Playability:
68/100
Good
Closure: 45%
Moderate
OPEN
🌡️ 4–9°C
🌧️ 0.0mm
💨 10km/h
☁️ 65%
💧 Balance: 28mm
📊 Sat: 61%
🔄 Net 7d: -5.6mm
Playability:
68/100
Good
Closure: 43%
Moderate
OPEN
🌡️ 2–9°C
🌧️ 0.6mm
💨 9km/h
☁️ 56%
💧 Balance: 26mm
📊 Sat: 59%
🔄 Net 7d: -4.6mm
Playability:
69/100
Good
Closure: 38%
Low
OPEN
🌡️ 4–8°C
🌧️ 0.6mm
💨 17km/h
☁️ 82%
💧 Balance: 26mm
📊 Sat: 57%
🔄 Net 7d: -3.8mm
Playability:
71/100
Good
Closure: 38%
Low
OPEN
🌡️ 2–10°C
🌧️ 1.2mm
💨 36km/h
☁️ 47%
💧 Balance: 26mm
📊 Sat: 57%
🔄 Net 7d: -3.3mm
Playability:
37/100
Grim
Feature importance from the trained model — these are the weather/soil factors most predictive of Cold Ashby closing.
Closure Score Lag1
0.5789
Soil Moisture 28 To 100Cm Mean
0.0551
Soil Moisture 7 To 28Cm Mean 7D Avg
0.0287
Model: Histogram Gradient Boosted Regressor (ordinal: open → partial → closed)
Training data: 119 days (26 closed, 10 partial, 83 open)
Training fit: Accuracy 100% | κ 1.000 | R² 0.978
Cross-validation: 5-fold TimeSeriesSplit — R² -1.448 ± 0.397 (limited by seasonal data — improves with more winters)
Thresholds: OPEN < 0.45 | PARTIAL | 0.55 < CLOSED (auto-optimised)
Features: 25 selected from 71 candidates
Soil model: Clay bucket model (field capacity 45.0mm, drainage rate 0.03/day)
Note: Predictions improve significantly with more labelled closure data. Target: 60+ days for robust estimates.