Closure: 37%
Low
PARTIAL
🌡️ 9–15°C
🌧️ 0.0mm
💨 20km/h
☁️ 72%
💧 Balance: 39mm
📊 Sat: 86%
🔄 Net 7d: +4.4mm
Playability:
62/100
Good
Closure: 37%
Low
PARTIAL
🌡️ 9–12°C
🌧️ 3.8mm
💨 23km/h
☁️ 92%
💧 Balance: 41mm
📊 Sat: 90%
🔄 Net 7d: +2.5mm
Playability:
52/100
Playable
Closure: 37%
Low
PARTIAL
🌡️ 7–12°C
🌧️ 2.3mm
💨 27km/h
☁️ 72%
💧 Balance: 41mm
📊 Sat: 90%
🔄 Net 7d: +3.0mm
Playability:
42/100
Playable
Closure: 37%
Low
PARTIAL
🌡️ 4–8°C
🌧️ 3.0mm
💨 15km/h
☁️ 74%
💧 Balance: 42mm
📊 Sat: 93%
🔄 Net 7d: +4.6mm
Playability:
47/100
Playable
Closure: 37%
Low
PARTIAL
🌡️ 4–11°C
🌧️ 0.9mm
💨 26km/h
☁️ 80%
💧 Balance: 40mm
📊 Sat: 90%
🔄 Net 7d: +4.3mm
Playability:
47/100
Playable
Closure: 37%
Low
PARTIAL
🌡️ 4–14°C
🌧️ 0.0mm
💨 15km/h
☁️ 43%
💧 Balance: 38mm
📊 Sat: 84%
🔄 Net 7d: +2.1mm
Playability:
72/100
Good
Closure: 37%
Low
PARTIAL
🌡️ 5–15°C
🌧️ 0.0mm
💨 10km/h
☁️ 46%
💧 Balance: 36mm
📊 Sat: 79%
🔄 Net 7d: +1.7mm
Playability:
72/100
Good
Closure: 37%
Low
PARTIAL
🌡️ 5–10°C
🌧️ 0.0mm
💨 11km/h
☁️ 88%
💧 Balance: 34mm
📊 Sat: 74%
🔄 Net 7d: +1.8mm
Playability:
67/100
Good
Closure: 37%
Low
PARTIAL
🌡️ 4–11°C
🌧️ 0.0mm
💨 12km/h
☁️ 97%
💧 Balance: 32mm
📊 Sat: 71%
🔄 Net 7d: -1.6mm
Playability:
67/100
Good
Closure: 47%
Moderate
PARTIAL
🌡️ 2–10°C
🌧️ 1.5mm
💨 23km/h
☁️ 90%
💧 Balance: 32mm
📊 Sat: 71%
🔄 Net 7d: -1.5mm
Playability:
52/100
Playable
Closure: 37%
Low
PARTIAL
🌡️ -0–5°C
🌧️ 0.2mm
💨 32km/h
☁️ 52%
💧 Balance: 31mm
📊 Sat: 68%
🔄 Net 7d: -4.5mm
Playability:
52/100
Playable
Closure: 37%
Low
PARTIAL
🌡️ -2–4°C
🌧️ 0.4mm
💨 26km/h
☁️ 82%
💧 Balance: 30mm
📊 Sat: 66%
🔄 Net 7d: -4.8mm
Playability:
37/100
Grim
Closure: 37%
Low
PARTIAL
🌡️ -2–2°C
🌧️ 3.0mm
💨 13km/h
☁️ 68%
💧 Balance: 32mm
📊 Sat: 71%
🔄 Net 7d: -0.8mm
Playability:
62/100
Good
Closure: 37%
Low
PARTIAL
🌡️ -1–4°C
🌧️ 0.0mm
💨 12km/h
☁️ 89%
💧 Balance: 31mm
📊 Sat: 68%
🔄 Net 7d: 0.0mm
Playability:
47/100
Playable
Closure: 37%
Low
PARTIAL
🌡️ -1–6°C
🌧️ 0.0mm
💨 19km/h
☁️ 93%
💧 Balance: 30mm
📊 Sat: 66%
🔄 Net 7d: +0.4mm
Playability:
47/100
Playable
Closure: 37%
Low
PARTIAL
🌡️ -1–8°C
🌧️ 0.0mm
💨 21km/h
☁️ 38%
💧 Balance: 28mm
📊 Sat: 62%
🔄 Net 7d: -0.2mm
Playability:
62/100
Good
Feature importance from the trained model — these are the weather/soil factors most predictive of Cold Ashby closing.
Closure Score Lag1
0.3301
Soil Moisture 28 To 100Cm Mean 7D Avg
0.1782
Soil Moisture 28 To 100Cm Mean
0.0092
Model: Histogram Gradient Boosted Regressor (ordinal: open → partial → closed)
Training data: 116 days (26 closed, 7 partial, 83 open)
Training fit: Accuracy 100% | κ 1.000 | R² 0.994
Cross-validation: 5-fold TimeSeriesSplit — R² -3.762 ± 2.556 (limited by seasonal data — improves with more winters)
Thresholds: OPEN < 0.20 | PARTIAL | 0.55 < CLOSED (auto-optimised)
Features: 25 selected from 71 candidates
Soil model: Clay bucket model (field capacity 45.0mm, drainage rate 0.03/day)
Note: Predictions improve significantly with more labelled closure data. Target: 60+ days for robust estimates.