Closure: 50%
Moderate
PARTIAL
🌡️ 8–11°C
🌧️ 8.2mm
💨 20km/h
☁️ 93%
💧 Balance: 45mm
📊 Sat: 100%
🔄 Net 7d: +11.3mm
Playability:
25/100
Grim
Closure: 50%
Moderate
PARTIAL
🌡️ 3–8°C
🌧️ 6.7mm
💨 29km/h
☁️ 86%
💧 Balance: 45mm
📊 Sat: 100%
🔄 Net 7d: +16.5mm
Playability:
10/100
Overstone with Tez
Closure: 50%
Moderate
PARTIAL
🌡️ 5–11°C
🌧️ 3.4mm
💨 28km/h
☁️ 95%
💧 Balance: 45mm
📊 Sat: 100%
🔄 Net 7d: +18.9mm
Playability:
25/100
Grim
Closure: 55%
Moderate
CLOSED
🌡️ 6–12°C
🌧️ 0.0mm
💨 24km/h
☁️ 61%
💧 Balance: 42mm
📊 Sat: 94%
🔄 Net 7d: +16.5mm
Playability:
53/100
Playable
Closure: 49%
Moderate
PARTIAL
🌡️ 5–8°C
🌧️ 1.5mm
💨 23km/h
☁️ 99%
💧 Balance: 42mm
📊 Sat: 93%
🔄 Net 7d: +18.1mm
Playability:
41/100
Playable
Closure: 47%
Moderate
PARTIAL
🌡️ 4–10°C
🌧️ 0.0mm
💨 19km/h
☁️ 63%
💧 Balance: 39mm
📊 Sat: 88%
🔄 Net 7d: +18.3mm
Playability:
52/100
Playable
Closure: 48%
Moderate
PARTIAL
🌡️ 3–12°C
🌧️ 0.0mm
💨 17km/h
☁️ 13%
💧 Balance: 37mm
📊 Sat: 82%
🔄 Net 7d: +12.8mm
Playability:
61/100
Good
Closure: 47%
Moderate
PARTIAL
🌡️ 7–10°C
🌧️ 0.0mm
💨 11km/h
☁️ 93%
💧 Balance: 35mm
📊 Sat: 78%
🔄 Net 7d: +4.1mm
Playability:
67/100
Good
Closure: 47%
Moderate
PARTIAL
🌡️ 6–10°C
🌧️ 0.6mm
💨 15km/h
☁️ 79%
💧 Balance: 34mm
📊 Sat: 76%
🔄 Net 7d: -1.7mm
Playability:
67/100
Good
Closure: 47%
Moderate
PARTIAL
🌡️ 6–14°C
🌧️ 0.6mm
💨 13km/h
☁️ 99%
💧 Balance: 33mm
📊 Sat: 73%
🔄 Net 7d: -4.7mm
Playability:
67/100
Good
Closure: 45%
Moderate
PARTIAL
🌡️ 5–12°C
🌧️ 0.0mm
💨 14km/h
☁️ 89%
💧 Balance: 31mm
📊 Sat: 68%
🔄 Net 7d: -4.1mm
Playability:
73/100
Good
Closure: 45%
Moderate
PARTIAL
🌡️ 4–10°C
🌧️ 0.0mm
💨 7km/h
☁️ 58%
💧 Balance: 29mm
📊 Sat: 64%
🔄 Net 7d: -5.9mm
Playability:
68/100
Good
Closure: 45%
Moderate
PARTIAL
🌡️ 4–9°C
🌧️ 0.0mm
💨 10km/h
☁️ 65%
💧 Balance: 27mm
📊 Sat: 61%
🔄 Net 7d: -5.6mm
Playability:
68/100
Good
Closure: 42%
Moderate
PARTIAL
🌡️ 2–9°C
🌧️ 0.6mm
💨 9km/h
☁️ 56%
💧 Balance: 26mm
📊 Sat: 58%
🔄 Net 7d: -4.6mm
Playability:
70/100
Good
Closure: 38%
Low
OPEN
🌡️ 4–8°C
🌧️ 0.6mm
💨 17km/h
☁️ 85%
💧 Balance: 26mm
📊 Sat: 57%
🔄 Net 7d: -3.8mm
Playability:
71/100
Good
Closure: 38%
Low
OPEN
🌡️ -1–8°C
🌧️ 0.0mm
💨 21km/h
☁️ 81%
💧 Balance: 24mm
📊 Sat: 52%
🔄 Net 7d: -5.5mm
Playability:
62/100
Good
Feature importance from the trained model — these are the weather/soil factors most predictive of Cold Ashby closing.
Closure Score Lag1
0.5847
Soil Moisture 28 To 100Cm Mean
0.0630
Soil Moisture 7 To 28Cm Mean 7D Avg
0.0313
Soil Moisture 28 To 100Cm Mean 7D Avg
0.0122
Model: Histogram Gradient Boosted Regressor (ordinal: open → partial → closed)
Training data: 119 days (26 closed, 10 partial, 83 open)
Training fit: Accuracy 100% | κ 1.000 | R² 0.980
Cross-validation: 5-fold TimeSeriesSplit — R² -1.439 ± 0.464 (limited by seasonal data — improves with more winters)
Thresholds: OPEN < 0.40 | PARTIAL | 0.55 < CLOSED (auto-optimised)
Features: 25 selected from 71 candidates
Soil model: Clay bucket model (field capacity 45.0mm, drainage rate 0.03/day)
Note: Predictions improve significantly with more labelled closure data. Target: 60+ days for robust estimates.