Closure: 100%
Very High
CLOSED
🌡️ 8–14°C
🌧️ 0.0mm
💨 25km/h
☁️ 59%
💧 Balance: 40mm
📊 Sat: 89%
🔄 Net 7d: +18.1mm
Playability:
30/100
Grim
Closure: 86%
Very High
CLOSED
🌡️ 4–10°C
🌧️ 0.0mm
💨 14km/h
☁️ 37%
💧 Balance: 38mm
📊 Sat: 84%
🔄 Net 7d: +17.6mm
Playability:
42/100
Playable
Closure: 78%
High
CLOSED
🌡️ 5–12°C
🌧️ 0.0mm
💨 13km/h
☁️ 80%
💧 Balance: 35mm
📊 Sat: 79%
🔄 Net 7d: +17.6mm
Playability:
51/100
Playable
Closure: 78%
High
CLOSED
🌡️ 5–12°C
🌧️ 3.6mm
💨 23km/h
☁️ 77%
💧 Balance: 36mm
📊 Sat: 81%
🔄 Net 7d: +15.5mm
Playability:
37/100
Grim
Closure: 77%
High
CLOSED
🌡️ 2–8°C
🌧️ 0.0mm
💨 22km/h
☁️ 60%
💧 Balance: 35mm
📊 Sat: 78%
🔄 Net 7d: +3.3mm
Playability:
47/100
Playable
Closure: 78%
High
CLOSED
🌡️ -1–8°C
🌧️ 0.0mm
💨 13km/h
☁️ 8%
💧 Balance: 33mm
📊 Sat: 74%
🔄 Net 7d: -4.6mm
Playability:
37/100
Grim
Closure: 69%
High
CLOSED
🌡️ 1–11°C
🌧️ 0.0mm
💨 16km/h
☁️ 67%
💧 Balance: 32mm
📊 Sat: 70%
🔄 Net 7d: -4.8mm
Playability:
56/100
Playable
Closure: 69%
High
CLOSED
🌡️ 6–12°C
🌧️ 0.0mm
💨 15km/h
☁️ 89%
💧 Balance: 30mm
📊 Sat: 66%
🔄 Net 7d: -4.1mm
Playability:
61/100
Good
Closure: 68%
High
CLOSED
🌡️ 7–11°C
🌧️ 3.8mm
💨 12km/h
☁️ 99%
💧 Balance: 32mm
📊 Sat: 71%
🔄 Net 7d: +0.2mm
Playability:
46/100
Playable
Closure: 68%
High
CLOSED
🌡️ 5–11°C
🌧️ 0.4mm
💨 13km/h
☁️ 66%
💧 Balance: 30mm
📊 Sat: 67%
🔄 Net 7d: +0.5mm
Playability:
56/100
Playable
Closure: 68%
High
CLOSED
🌡️ 2–11°C
🌧️ 0.6mm
💨 9km/h
☁️ 48%
💧 Balance: 28mm
📊 Sat: 63%
🔄 Net 7d: -2.3mm
Playability:
56/100
Playable
Closure: 65%
High
CLOSED
🌡️ 5–10°C
🌧️ 0.0mm
💨 13km/h
☁️ 88%
💧 Balance: 27mm
📊 Sat: 59%
🔄 Net 7d: -2.9mm
Playability:
58/100
Playable
Closure: 65%
High
CLOSED
🌡️ 2–11°C
🌧️ 0.0mm
💨 7km/h
☁️ 48%
💧 Balance: 24mm
📊 Sat: 54%
🔄 Net 7d: -3.2mm
Playability:
58/100
Playable
Closure: 64%
High
CLOSED
🌡️ 2–12°C
🌧️ 0.0mm
💨 8km/h
☁️ 53%
💧 Balance: 22mm
📊 Sat: 49%
🔄 Net 7d: -4.0mm
Playability:
63/100
Good
Closure: 63%
High
CLOSED
🌡️ 3–15°C
🌧️ 0.1mm
💨 26km/h
☁️ 30%
💧 Balance: 20mm
📊 Sat: 44%
🔄 Net 7d: -4.7mm
Playability:
59/100
Playable
Closure: 65%
High
CLOSED
🌡️ 2–6°C
🌧️ 2.8mm
💨 36km/h
☁️ 97%
💧 Balance: 22mm
📊 Sat: 48%
🔄 Net 7d: -5.3mm
Playability:
18/100
Overstone with Tez
Feature importance from the trained model — these are the weather/soil factors most predictive of Cold Ashby closing.
Closure Score Lag1
0.6744
Soil Moisture 28 To 100Cm Mean
0.0454
Soil Moisture 28 To 100Cm Mean 7D Avg
0.0378
Soil Moisture 7 To 28Cm Mean 7D Avg
0.0222
Model: Histogram Gradient Boosted Regressor (ordinal: open → partial → closed)
Training data: 122 days (29 closed, 10 partial, 83 open)
Training fit: Accuracy 100% | κ 1.000 | R² 0.980
Cross-validation: 5-fold TimeSeriesSplit — R² -2.312 ± 0.394 (limited by seasonal data — improves with more winters)
Thresholds: OPEN < 0.40 | PARTIAL | 0.55 < CLOSED (auto-optimised)
Features: 25 selected from 71 candidates
Soil model: Clay bucket model (field capacity 45.0mm, drainage rate 0.03/day)
Note: Predictions improve significantly with more labelled closure data. Target: 60+ days for robust estimates.