Closure: 100%
Very High
CLOSED
🌡️ 4–8°C
🌧️ 11.6mm
💨 26km/h
☁️ 75%
💧 Balance: 45mm
📊 Sat: 100%
🔄 Net 7d: +25.4mm
Playability:
0/100
Overstone with Tez
Closure: 100%
Very High
CLOSED
🌡️ 5–11°C
🌧️ 0.6mm
💨 24km/h
☁️ 94%
💧 Balance: 44mm
📊 Sat: 97%
🔄 Net 7d: +25.2mm
Playability:
20/100
Grim
Closure: 52%
Moderate
PARTIAL
🌡️ 7–13°C
🌧️ 0.0mm
💨 23km/h
☁️ 64%
💧 Balance: 41mm
📊 Sat: 91%
🔄 Net 7d: +22.9mm
Playability:
54/100
Playable
Closure: 90%
Very High
CLOSED
🌡️ 6–7°C
🌧️ 5.3mm
💨 21km/h
☁️ 96%
💧 Balance: 44mm
📊 Sat: 98%
🔄 Net 7d: +28.3mm
Playability:
1/100
Overstone with Tez
Closure: 55%
Moderate
PARTIAL
🌡️ 6–10°C
🌧️ 0.1mm
💨 12km/h
☁️ 73%
💧 Balance: 42mm
📊 Sat: 94%
🔄 Net 7d: +28.7mm
Playability:
48/100
Playable
Closure: 46%
Moderate
PARTIAL
🌡️ 7–14°C
🌧️ 0.0mm
💨 14km/h
☁️ 43%
💧 Balance: 40mm
📊 Sat: 88%
🔄 Net 7d: +23.2mm
Playability:
57/100
Playable
Closure: 46%
Moderate
PARTIAL
🌡️ 7–9°C
🌧️ 6.1mm
💨 14km/h
☁️ 97%
💧 Balance: 43mm
📊 Sat: 96%
🔄 Net 7d: +16.1mm
Playability:
23/100
Grim
Closure: 46%
Moderate
PARTIAL
🌡️ 6–13°C
🌧️ 0.1mm
💨 7km/h
☁️ 52%
💧 Balance: 40mm
📊 Sat: 90%
🔄 Net 7d: +3.5mm
Playability:
58/100
Playable
Closure: 45%
Moderate
PARTIAL
🌡️ 3–10°C
🌧️ 0.0mm
💨 6km/h
☁️ 86%
💧 Balance: 38mm
📊 Sat: 86%
🔄 Net 7d: +3.0mm
Playability:
53/100
Playable
Closure: 44%
Moderate
PARTIAL
🌡️ 2–8°C
🌧️ 0.0mm
💨 8km/h
☁️ 91%
💧 Balance: 37mm
📊 Sat: 82%
🔄 Net 7d: +3.9mm
Playability:
64/100
Good
Closure: 43%
Moderate
PARTIAL
🌡️ 1–10°C
🌧️ 0.0mm
💨 9km/h
☁️ 75%
💧 Balance: 35mm
📊 Sat: 77%
🔄 Net 7d: -1.5mm
Playability:
64/100
Good
Closure: 40%
Moderate
PARTIAL
🌡️ 2–8°C
🌧️ 0.0mm
💨 11km/h
☁️ 40%
💧 Balance: 33mm
📊 Sat: 72%
🔄 Net 7d: -2.0mm
Playability:
55/100
Playable
Closure: 40%
Moderate
PARTIAL
🌡️ 0–9°C
🌧️ 0.0mm
💨 19km/h
☁️ 9%
💧 Balance: 30mm
📊 Sat: 67%
🔄 Net 7d: -2.1mm
Playability:
60/100
Good
Closure: 42%
Moderate
PARTIAL
🌡️ 2–11°C
🌧️ 0.0mm
💨 20km/h
☁️ 11%
💧 Balance: 28mm
📊 Sat: 61%
🔄 Net 7d: -8.4mm
Playability:
70/100
Good
Closure: 42%
Moderate
PARTIAL
🌡️ 3–12°C
🌧️ 0.0mm
💨 20km/h
☁️ 35%
💧 Balance: 25mm
📊 Sat: 56%
🔄 Net 7d: -8.7mm
Playability:
70/100
Good
Closure: 39%
Low
OPEN
🌡️ 5–15°C
🌧️ 0.0mm
💨 20km/h
☁️ 75%
💧 Balance: 23mm
📊 Sat: 51%
🔄 Net 7d: -9.4mm
Playability:
76/100
Good
Feature importance from the trained model — these are the weather/soil factors most predictive of Cold Ashby closing.
Closure Score Lag1
0.7240
Soil Moisture 28 To 100Cm Mean
0.0416
Soil Moisture 7 To 28Cm Mean
0.0152
Model: Histogram Gradient Boosted Regressor (ordinal: open → partial → closed)
Training data: 120 days (27 closed, 10 partial, 83 open)
Training fit: Accuracy 100% | κ 1.000 | R² 0.980
Cross-validation: 5-fold TimeSeriesSplit — R² -1.635 ± 0.385 (limited by seasonal data — improves with more winters)
Thresholds: OPEN < 0.40 | PARTIAL | 0.55 < CLOSED (auto-optimised)
Features: 25 selected from 71 candidates
Soil model: Clay bucket model (field capacity 45.0mm, drainage rate 0.03/day)
Note: Predictions improve significantly with more labelled closure data. Target: 60+ days for robust estimates.