Closure: 100%
Very High
CLOSED
🌡️ 3–12°C
🌧️ 0.9mm
💨 24km/h
☁️ 97%
💧 Balance: 44mm
📊 Sat: 98%
🔄 Net 7d: +21.5mm
Playability:
20/100
Grim
Closure: 72%
High
CLOSED
🌡️ 6–14°C
🌧️ 0.0mm
💨 24km/h
☁️ 46%
💧 Balance: 41mm
📊 Sat: 92%
🔄 Net 7d: +19.1mm
Playability:
44/100
Playable
Closure: 55%
Moderate
PARTIAL
🌡️ 4–9°C
🌧️ 0.0mm
💨 19km/h
☁️ 78%
💧 Balance: 39mm
📊 Sat: 86%
🔄 Net 7d: +18.7mm
Playability:
48/100
Playable
Closure: 54%
Moderate
PARTIAL
🌡️ 4–11°C
🌧️ 0.0mm
💨 16km/h
☁️ 56%
💧 Balance: 37mm
📊 Sat: 82%
🔄 Net 7d: +19.0mm
Playability:
59/100
Playable
Closure: 53%
Moderate
PARTIAL
🌡️ 6–13°C
🌧️ 1.5mm
💨 19km/h
☁️ 24%
💧 Balance: 36mm
📊 Sat: 79%
🔄 Net 7d: +14.9mm
Playability:
54/100
Playable
Closure: 48%
Moderate
PARTIAL
🌡️ 7–9°C
🌧️ 2.0mm
💨 14km/h
☁️ 92%
💧 Balance: 36mm
📊 Sat: 80%
🔄 Net 7d: +4.4mm
Playability:
57/100
Playable
Closure: 46%
Moderate
PARTIAL
🌡️ 4–11°C
🌧️ 0.1mm
💨 12km/h
☁️ 47%
💧 Balance: 34mm
📊 Sat: 75%
🔄 Net 7d: -3.8mm
Playability:
62/100
Good
Closure: 46%
Moderate
PARTIAL
🌡️ 1–10°C
🌧️ 0.0mm
💨 15km/h
☁️ 24%
💧 Balance: 31mm
📊 Sat: 70%
🔄 Net 7d: -5.3mm
Playability:
67/100
Good
Closure: 46%
Moderate
PARTIAL
🌡️ 5–9°C
🌧️ 0.0mm
💨 12km/h
☁️ 98%
💧 Balance: 30mm
📊 Sat: 66%
🔄 Net 7d: -4.4mm
Playability:
67/100
Good
Closure: 46%
Moderate
PARTIAL
🌡️ 4–10°C
🌧️ 1.5mm
💨 10km/h
☁️ 100%
💧 Balance: 30mm
📊 Sat: 66%
🔄 Net 7d: -2.4mm
Playability:
57/100
Playable
Closure: 46%
Moderate
PARTIAL
🌡️ 1–8°C
🌧️ 0.3mm
💨 11km/h
☁️ 50%
💧 Balance: 28mm
📊 Sat: 62%
🔄 Net 7d: -2.6mm
Playability:
57/100
Playable
Closure: 46%
Moderate
PARTIAL
🌡️ 2–9°C
🌧️ 0.6mm
💨 9km/h
☁️ 63%
💧 Balance: 27mm
📊 Sat: 59%
🔄 Net 7d: -3.0mm
Playability:
67/100
Good
Closure: 39%
Low
OPEN
🌡️ 0–10°C
🌧️ 0.0mm
💨 15km/h
☁️ 61%
💧 Balance: 24mm
📊 Sat: 54%
🔄 Net 7d: -5.8mm
Playability:
71/100
Good
Closure: 61%
High
CLOSED
🌡️ 5–7°C
🌧️ 8.4mm
💨 29km/h
☁️ 100%
💧 Balance: 31mm
📊 Sat: 69%
🔄 Net 7d: +3.0mm
Playability:
30/100
Grim
Closure: 39%
Low
OPEN
🌡️ 2–8°C
🌧️ 4.8mm
💨 31km/h
☁️ 88%
💧 Balance: 34mm
📊 Sat: 75%
🔄 Net 7d: +7.8mm
Playability:
46/100
Playable
Closure: 39%
Low
OPEN
🌡️ 0–8°C
🌧️ 0.0mm
💨 33km/h
☁️ 86%
💧 Balance: 32mm
📊 Sat: 71%
🔄 Net 7d: +7.3mm
Playability:
56/100
Playable
Feature importance from the trained model — these are the weather/soil factors most predictive of Cold Ashby closing.
Closure Score Lag1
0.6563
Soil Moisture 28 To 100Cm Mean
0.0441
Soil Moisture 7 To 28Cm Mean 7D Avg
0.0235
Model: Histogram Gradient Boosted Regressor (ordinal: open → partial → closed)
Training data: 121 days (28 closed, 10 partial, 83 open)
Training fit: Accuracy 100% | κ 1.000 | R² 0.979
Cross-validation: 5-fold TimeSeriesSplit — R² -1.537 ± 0.617 (limited by seasonal data — improves with more winters)
Thresholds: OPEN < 0.40 | PARTIAL | 0.60 < CLOSED (auto-optimised)
Features: 25 selected from 71 candidates
Soil model: Clay bucket model (field capacity 45.0mm, drainage rate 0.03/day)
Note: Predictions improve significantly with more labelled closure data. Target: 60+ days for robust estimates.