Closure: 0%
Very Low
OPEN
🌡️ 6–18°C
🌧️ 5.0mm
💨 22km/h
☁️ 59%
💧 Balance: 1mm
📊 Sat: 2%
🔄 Net 7d: -17.8mm
Playability:
90/100
Excellent
Closure: 0%
Very Low
OPEN
🌡️ 6–13°C
🌧️ 0.7mm
💨 26km/h
☁️ 64%
💧 Balance: 0mm
📊 Sat: 0%
🔄 Net 7d: -16.4mm
Playability:
90/100
Excellent
Closure: 0%
Very Low
OPEN
🌡️ 5–16°C
🌧️ 0.0mm
💨 32km/h
☁️ 3%
💧 Balance: 0mm
📊 Sat: 0%
🔄 Net 7d: -17.0mm
Playability:
90/100
Excellent
Closure: 0%
Very Low
OPEN
🌡️ 6–17°C
🌧️ 0.0mm
💨 28km/h
☁️ 0%
💧 Balance: 0mm
📊 Sat: 0%
🔄 Net 7d: -18.2mm
Playability:
90/100
Excellent
Closure: 0%
Very Low
OPEN
🌡️ 5–19°C
🌧️ 0.6mm
💨 17km/h
☁️ 17%
💧 Balance: 0mm
📊 Sat: 0%
🔄 Net 7d: -17.9mm
Playability:
100/100
Excellent
Closure: 0%
Very Low
OPEN
🌡️ 2–19°C
🌧️ 1.8mm
💨 10km/h
☁️ 97%
💧 Balance: 0mm
📊 Sat: 0%
🔄 Net 7d: -15.1mm
Playability:
90/100
Excellent
Closure: 0%
Very Low
OPEN
🌡️ 8–17°C
🌧️ 0.0mm
💨 12km/h
☁️ 35%
💧 Balance: 0mm
📊 Sat: 0%
🔄 Net 7d: -14.3mm
Playability:
100/100
Excellent
Closure: 0%
Very Low
OPEN
🌡️ 9–16°C
🌧️ 0.6mm
💨 12km/h
☁️ 54%
💧 Balance: 0mm
📊 Sat: 0%
🔄 Net 7d: -18.3mm
Playability:
100/100
Excellent
Closure: 0%
Very Low
OPEN
🌡️ 6–14°C
🌧️ 0.0mm
💨 18km/h
☁️ 29%
💧 Balance: 0mm
📊 Sat: 0%
🔄 Net 7d: -19.7mm
Playability:
100/100
Excellent
Closure: 0%
Very Low
OPEN
🌡️ 5–16°C
🌧️ 0.0mm
💨 13km/h
☁️ 24%
💧 Balance: 0mm
📊 Sat: 0%
🔄 Net 7d: -19.0mm
Playability:
100/100
Excellent
Closure: 0%
Very Low
OPEN
🌡️ 6–14°C
🌧️ 0.0mm
💨 19km/h
☁️ 48%
💧 Balance: 0mm
📊 Sat: 0%
🔄 Net 7d: -17.5mm
Playability:
100/100
Excellent
Closure: 0%
Very Low
OPEN
🌡️ 7–10°C
🌧️ 0.0mm
💨 26km/h
☁️ 99%
💧 Balance: 0mm
📊 Sat: 0%
🔄 Net 7d: -16.6mm
Playability:
90/100
Excellent
Closure: 0%
Very Low
OPEN
🌡️ 6–11°C
🌧️ 0.0mm
💨 26km/h
☁️ 33%
💧 Balance: 0mm
📊 Sat: 0%
🔄 Net 7d: -18.8mm
Playability:
85/100
Excellent
Closure: 0%
Very Low
OPEN
🌡️ 4–14°C
🌧️ 0.0mm
💨 23km/h
☁️ 22%
💧 Balance: 0mm
📊 Sat: 0%
🔄 Net 7d: -19.9mm
Playability:
100/100
Excellent
Closure: 0%
Very Low
OPEN
🌡️ 4–15°C
🌧️ 0.1mm
💨 22km/h
☁️ 19%
💧 Balance: 0mm
📊 Sat: 0%
🔄 Net 7d: -21.5mm
Playability:
100/100
Excellent
Closure: 1%
Very Low
OPEN
🌡️ 7–12°C
🌧️ 1.6mm
💨 19km/h
☁️ 90%
💧 Balance: 0mm
📊 Sat: 0%
🔄 Net 7d: -17.8mm
Playability:
90/100
Excellent
Feature importance from the trained model — these are the weather/soil factors most predictive of Cold Ashby closing.
Closure Score Lag1
0.2939
Soil Moisture 0 To 7Cm Mean 7D Avg
0.0479
Soil Moisture 28 To 100Cm Mean
0.0394
Model: Histogram Gradient Boosted Regressor (ordinal: open → partial → closed)
Training data: 178 days (30 closed, 12 partial, 136 open)
Training fit: Accuracy 99% | κ 0.988 | R² 0.973
Cross-validation: 5-fold TimeSeriesSplit — R² -2.288 ± 3.657 (limited by seasonal data — improves with more winters)
Thresholds: OPEN < 0.35 | PARTIAL | 0.55 < CLOSED (auto-optimised)
Features: 25 selected from 72 candidates
Soil model: Clay bucket model (field capacity 45.0mm, drainage rate 0.02/day)
Note: Predictions improve significantly with more labelled closure data. Target: 60+ days for robust estimates.