⛳ Cold Ashby – Course Closure Forecast

Predictive model based on soil moisture dynamics, rainfall accumulation & seasonal drainage

Generated: 2026-02-27T13:29:11 | Model trained on 119 labelled days

Forecast Days
16
Predicted Open
2
Predicted Partial
13
Predicted Closed
1
Avg Closure Risk
46%
Best Day
2026-03-14
Train Accuracy
100%
Train κ
1.00
📅 Daily Forecast
Friday 2026-02-27
⚠️ PARTIAL
Closure: 50% Moderate PARTIAL
🌡️ 8–11°C 🌧️ 8.2mm 💨 20km/h ☁️ 93%
💧 Balance: 45mm 📊 Sat: 100% 🔄 Net 7d: +11.3mm
Playability: 25/100 Grim
Saturday 2026-02-28
⚠️ PARTIAL
Closure: 50% Moderate PARTIAL
🌡️ 3–8°C 🌧️ 6.7mm 💨 29km/h ☁️ 86%
💧 Balance: 45mm 📊 Sat: 100% 🔄 Net 7d: +16.5mm
Playability: 10/100 Overstone with Tez
Sunday 2026-03-01
⚠️ PARTIAL
Closure: 50% Moderate PARTIAL
🌡️ 5–11°C 🌧️ 3.4mm 💨 28km/h ☁️ 95%
💧 Balance: 45mm 📊 Sat: 100% 🔄 Net 7d: +18.9mm
Playability: 25/100 Grim
Monday 2026-03-02
⚠️ CLOSED
Closure: 55% Moderate CLOSED
🌡️ 6–12°C 🌧️ 0.0mm 💨 24km/h ☁️ 61%
💧 Balance: 42mm 📊 Sat: 94% 🔄 Net 7d: +16.5mm
Playability: 53/100 Playable
Tuesday 2026-03-03
⚠️ PARTIAL
Closure: 49% Moderate PARTIAL
🌡️ 5–8°C 🌧️ 1.5mm 💨 23km/h ☁️ 99%
💧 Balance: 42mm 📊 Sat: 93% 🔄 Net 7d: +18.1mm
Playability: 41/100 Playable
Wednesday 2026-03-04
⚠️ PARTIAL
Closure: 47% Moderate PARTIAL
🌡️ 4–10°C 🌧️ 0.0mm 💨 19km/h ☁️ 63%
💧 Balance: 39mm 📊 Sat: 88% 🔄 Net 7d: +18.3mm
Playability: 52/100 Playable
Thursday 2026-03-05
⚠️ PARTIAL
Closure: 48% Moderate PARTIAL
🌡️ 3–12°C 🌧️ 0.0mm 💨 17km/h ☁️ 13%
💧 Balance: 37mm 📊 Sat: 82% 🔄 Net 7d: +12.8mm
Playability: 61/100 Good
Friday 2026-03-06
⚠️ PARTIAL
Closure: 47% Moderate PARTIAL
🌡️ 7–10°C 🌧️ 0.0mm 💨 11km/h ☁️ 93%
💧 Balance: 35mm 📊 Sat: 78% 🔄 Net 7d: +4.1mm
Playability: 67/100 Good
Saturday 2026-03-07
⚠️ PARTIAL
Closure: 47% Moderate PARTIAL
🌡️ 6–10°C 🌧️ 0.6mm 💨 15km/h ☁️ 79%
💧 Balance: 34mm 📊 Sat: 76% 🔄 Net 7d: -1.7mm
Playability: 67/100 Good
Sunday 2026-03-08
⚠️ PARTIAL
Closure: 47% Moderate PARTIAL
🌡️ 6–14°C 🌧️ 0.6mm 💨 13km/h ☁️ 99%
💧 Balance: 33mm 📊 Sat: 73% 🔄 Net 7d: -4.7mm
Playability: 67/100 Good
Monday 2026-03-09
⚠️ PARTIAL
Closure: 45% Moderate PARTIAL
🌡️ 5–12°C 🌧️ 0.0mm 💨 14km/h ☁️ 89%
💧 Balance: 31mm 📊 Sat: 68% 🔄 Net 7d: -4.1mm
Playability: 73/100 Good
Tuesday 2026-03-10
⚠️ PARTIAL
Closure: 45% Moderate PARTIAL
🌡️ 4–10°C 🌧️ 0.0mm 💨 7km/h ☁️ 58%
💧 Balance: 29mm 📊 Sat: 64% 🔄 Net 7d: -5.9mm
Playability: 68/100 Good
Wednesday 2026-03-11
⚠️ PARTIAL
Closure: 45% Moderate PARTIAL
🌡️ 4–9°C 🌧️ 0.0mm 💨 10km/h ☁️ 65%
💧 Balance: 27mm 📊 Sat: 61% 🔄 Net 7d: -5.6mm
Playability: 68/100 Good
Thursday 2026-03-12
⚠️ PARTIAL
Closure: 42% Moderate PARTIAL
🌡️ 2–9°C 🌧️ 0.6mm 💨 9km/h ☁️ 56%
💧 Balance: 26mm 📊 Sat: 58% 🔄 Net 7d: -4.6mm
Playability: 70/100 Good
Friday 2026-03-13
👍 OPEN
Closure: 38% Low OPEN
🌡️ 4–8°C 🌧️ 0.6mm 💨 17km/h ☁️ 85%
💧 Balance: 26mm 📊 Sat: 57% 🔄 Net 7d: -3.8mm
Playability: 71/100 Good
Saturday 2026-03-14
👍 OPEN
Closure: 38% Low OPEN
🌡️ -1–8°C 🌧️ 0.0mm 💨 21km/h ☁️ 81%
💧 Balance: 24mm 📊 Sat: 52% 🔄 Net 7d: -5.5mm
Playability: 62/100 Good
🔬 What Drives Course Closure

Feature importance from the trained model — these are the weather/soil factors most predictive of Cold Ashby closing.

Closure Score Lag1
0.5847
Precip Max 3D
0.1076
Soil Moisture 28 To 100Cm Mean
0.0630
Soil Moisture 7 To 28Cm Mean 7D Avg
0.0313
Precip Sum 28D
0.0270
Day Of Year
0.0270
Net Moisture 14D
0.0207
Precip Max 5D
0.0200
Month
0.0178
Soil Moisture 28 To 100Cm Mean 7D Avg
0.0122

Model: Histogram Gradient Boosted Regressor (ordinal: open → partial → closed)

Training data: 119 days (26 closed, 10 partial, 83 open)

Training fit: Accuracy 100% | κ 1.000 | R² 0.980

Cross-validation: 5-fold TimeSeriesSplit — R² -1.439 ± 0.464 (limited by seasonal data — improves with more winters)

Thresholds: OPEN < 0.40 | PARTIAL | 0.55 < CLOSED (auto-optimised)

Features: 25 selected from 71 candidates

Soil model: Clay bucket model (field capacity 45.0mm, drainage rate 0.03/day)

Note: Predictions improve significantly with more labelled closure data. Target: 60+ days for robust estimates.