Closure: 50%
Moderate
PARTIAL
🌡️ 8–12°C
🌧️ 10.2mm
💨 20km/h
☁️ 99%
💧 Balance: 45mm
📊 Sat: 100%
🔄 Net 7d: +13.2mm
Playability:
10/100
Overstone with Tez
Closure: 50%
Moderate
PARTIAL
🌡️ 4–8°C
🌧️ 2.1mm
💨 24km/h
☁️ 75%
💧 Balance: 45mm
📊 Sat: 100%
🔄 Net 7d: +13.6mm
Playability:
30/100
Grim
Closure: 50%
Moderate
PARTIAL
🌡️ 5–11°C
🌧️ 2.6mm
💨 28km/h
☁️ 94%
💧 Balance: 45mm
📊 Sat: 100%
🔄 Net 7d: +15.5mm
Playability:
25/100
Grim
Closure: 45%
Moderate
PARTIAL
🌡️ 6–12°C
🌧️ 0.0mm
💨 24km/h
☁️ 61%
💧 Balance: 42mm
📊 Sat: 93%
🔄 Net 7d: +13.0mm
Playability:
58/100
Playable
Closure: 46%
Moderate
PARTIAL
🌡️ 5–8°C
🌧️ 1.5mm
💨 23km/h
☁️ 99%
💧 Balance: 41mm
📊 Sat: 91%
🔄 Net 7d: +14.0mm
Playability:
43/100
Playable
Closure: 45%
Moderate
PARTIAL
🌡️ 4–10°C
🌧️ 0.0mm
💨 19km/h
☁️ 63%
💧 Balance: 39mm
📊 Sat: 86%
🔄 Net 7d: +14.0mm
Playability:
53/100
Playable
Closure: 51%
Moderate
PARTIAL
🌡️ 3–12°C
🌧️ 0.0mm
💨 17km/h
☁️ 15%
💧 Balance: 36mm
📊 Sat: 81%
🔄 Net 7d: +8.6mm
Playability:
60/100
Good
Closure: 49%
Moderate
PARTIAL
🌡️ 4–15°C
🌧️ 1.5mm
💨 11km/h
☁️ 71%
💧 Balance: 35mm
📊 Sat: 78%
🔄 Net 7d: -1.1mm
Playability:
56/100
Playable
Closure: 49%
Moderate
PARTIAL
🌡️ 6–14°C
🌧️ 0.3mm
💨 15km/h
☁️ 84%
💧 Balance: 33mm
📊 Sat: 74%
🔄 Net 7d: -3.1mm
Playability:
66/100
Good
Closure: 49%
Moderate
PARTIAL
🌡️ 6–11°C
🌧️ 0.0mm
💨 13km/h
☁️ 84%
💧 Balance: 32mm
📊 Sat: 70%
🔄 Net 7d: -5.8mm
Playability:
66/100
Good
Closure: 50%
Moderate
PARTIAL
🌡️ 8–11°C
🌧️ 3.3mm
💨 14km/h
☁️ 100%
💧 Balance: 34mm
📊 Sat: 74%
🔄 Net 7d: -1.5mm
Playability:
56/100
Playable
Closure: 50%
Moderate
PARTIAL
🌡️ 5–10°C
🌧️ 0.3mm
💨 7km/h
☁️ 59%
💧 Balance: 31mm
📊 Sat: 70%
🔄 Net 7d: -2.8mm
Playability:
66/100
Good
Closure: 50%
Moderate
PARTIAL
🌡️ 4–11°C
🌧️ 0.0mm
💨 10km/h
☁️ 79%
💧 Balance: 29mm
📊 Sat: 65%
🔄 Net 7d: -2.7mm
Playability:
66/100
Good
Closure: 50%
Moderate
PARTIAL
🌡️ 6–12°C
🌧️ 0.0mm
💨 9km/h
☁️ 97%
💧 Balance: 27mm
📊 Sat: 61%
🔄 Net 7d: -2.8mm
Playability:
71/100
Good
Closure: 40%
Low
PARTIAL
🌡️ 4–15°C
🌧️ 0.0mm
💨 17km/h
☁️ 29%
💧 Balance: 25mm
📊 Sat: 55%
🔄 Net 7d: -4.5mm
Playability:
76/100
Good
Closure: 40%
Low
PARTIAL
🌡️ 1–12°C
🌧️ 0.0mm
💨 27km/h
☁️ 84%
💧 Balance: 23mm
📊 Sat: 51%
🔄 Net 7d: -4.7mm
Playability:
61/100
Good
Feature importance from the trained model — these are the weather/soil factors most predictive of Cold Ashby closing.
Closure Score Lag1
0.4304
Soil Moisture 28 To 100Cm Mean 7D Avg
0.1049
Soil Moisture 7 To 28Cm Mean 7D Avg
0.0213
Model: Histogram Gradient Boosted Regressor (ordinal: open → partial → closed)
Training data: 119 days (26 closed, 10 partial, 83 open)
Training fit: Accuracy 100% | κ 1.000 | R² 0.991
Cross-validation: 5-fold TimeSeriesSplit — R² -1.372 ± 0.397 (limited by seasonal data — improves with more winters)
Thresholds: OPEN < 0.25 | PARTIAL | 0.55 < CLOSED (auto-optimised)
Features: 25 selected from 71 candidates
Soil model: Clay bucket model (field capacity 45.0mm, drainage rate 0.03/day)
Note: Predictions improve significantly with more labelled closure data. Target: 60+ days for robust estimates.